And with that in mind, the president once again turned to his favorite social-media app this morning.
Less than a week after authorizing a missile strike against Syria, President Trump took to social media Tuesday to rattle the saber at North Korea and its nuclear program.
“North Korea is looking for trouble,” Trump tweeted. “If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.”
And while I’m sympathetic to the argument that reacting to every random Trump tweet is generally a pointless mistake, it’s not unreasonable to argue that international nuclear diplomacy shouldn’t be conducted by confused amateur presidents, 140 characters at a time.
This is especially true after the U.S. military ordered an aircraft carrier group to move closer to the Korean Peninsula over the weekend.
The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent had a good piece on this at the time, speaking to some arms-control experts.
Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear non-proliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, points out that in peacetime, any belligerent Trump Tweet about nuclear weapons might not appear as alarming, simply because “confirmation bias” might lead key actors not to interpret it in its most frightening light at that moment. Amid rising international tensions, though, that confirmation bias might work in the other direction, he says.
“Imagine we’re in a crisis – if he recklessly tweets, people could read these things in the worst possible light,” Lewis tells me. “The North Koreans have a plan to use nuclear weapons very early in a conflict. They’re not going to wait around. If they think we are going, they’re going to use nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan.”
Some reports have indicated that President Obama privately told Trump that one of the greatest national security predicaments he will face as president is North Korea’s escalating nuclear potential. But Trump’s Tweet suggests an inability to appreciate that Twitter is far too blunt instrument to handle dangerously sensitive, complex international challenges, and indeed could lead to misunderstandings – and potential catastrophe.
In case this isn’t painfully obvious, making an already volatile situation worse – on purpose, through Twitter – is profoundly dangerous. There’s literally no evidence to suggest the president has any idea what he’s doing.
North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2017